Watching the Issues: A Look Back at our Look Ahead for Young Children and Families
In light of the events of 2020, we revisit some of the futures we envisioned in our 2019 forecast.
by Katie King
When we explore and articulate possibilities for the future, we are still a long way from knowing how things will unfold. That’s why, after forecasting a range of possibilities, it’s important to name a few key issues to track. That way we can monitor shifts in the landscape and begin to understand what kind of future might emerge.
In our 2019 forecast, Foundations for Flourishing Futures, KnowledgeWorks and Capita identified five key domains that would be important to the futures of young children and their families. In each domain, we looked at emerging issues and created artifacts from the future to visualize how those emerging issues could play out. Each domain also included three “Issues to Watch” to help stakeholders keep an eye on how things would continue to shift.
When we published that forecast, we had no idea that we were on the brink of a pandemic. However, some of the issues we highlighted are even more relevant today than they were then. They warrant reflection in light of what we have collectively experienced and learned. Below are excerpts from issues we named in 2019, along with a fresh look at where they stand today.
Health by Numbers: Emerging technologies and new understandings of community-level health are reshaping how young children’s and families’ well-being are measured and supported.
In 2019, we asked: “How might stakeholders establish trusted, evidence-based health and well-being practices in an increasingly complex and rapidly changing environment?” We recognized that traditional research cycles and scientific consensus-building processes were no match for the pace of change and the volume of health information that we could expect to experience. So we encouraged readers to consider how they might navigate a landscape where health experts would likely struggle to agree upon and communicate priorities, leaving parents and others who support children subject to uncertainty and vulnerable to misinformation.
Where we stand today: When we entered the COVID-19 pandemic, we did not have a strong foundation from which to navigate collectively a novel, rapidly shifting and dangerous situation. The technological advances that allowed for vaccines to be developed quickly caused fear and suspicion rather than acclaim in many circles. Ultimately, the pandemic further eroded trust in the health information we receive from experts and government officials and in our fellow community members’ ability and willingness to consider others’ well-being. However, we also learned a great deal about the speed and scale of trust. Communities with community-based and peer-to-peer public health infrastructures were able to call upon those assets to activate a ground game that proved invaluable in containing, and vaccinating people against, the virus.
What we’re asking now: What community assets and relationships might encourage people to trust one another amidst uncertainty and a range of world views? How might stakeholders invest in those assets and relationships now to recoup what has been lost and prepare for the next disruption?
Stretched Social Fabric: Shifting support structures and information sources are changing the ways in which increasingly diverse families navigate and access resources.
In 2019, we asked: “How might stakeholders build public will for dignified approaches to supporting young children and their families?” We pointed to the need to rethink the policies and programs that provide a safety net for young children and families. The impact of such programs is limited when accompanied by complex eligibility and application requirements, which are often the result of a demeaning, unspoken assumption that people who need public support cannot be trusted. Even in 2019, most Americans supported efforts to boost the economic standing of young children and families. Therefore, we encouraged stakeholders to build upon those sentiments by moving away from approaches that made social welfare programs seem like punishment.
Where we stand today: As a result of the economic havoc wrought by the pandemic, the Federal government provided individuals with multiple rounds of condition-free cash payments and expanded unemployment benefits. Private companies offered employees more paid sick leave. States and municipalities instituted eviction moratoria. Forms of support and assistance that had previously been political nonstarters were put in place, seemingly in an instant. The circumstances of the pandemic made room for these temporary measures because people were clearly struggling as a result of the system, not individual choices. However, these measures’ swift implementation raised larger questions about the types of support our country can and should offer people who are left behind by the economy and whether our traditional narratives about who deserves what -- and why -- may be more limited than we believed.
What we’re asking now: What assumptions and norms around family supports have been brought into question? In what ways can stakeholders leverage shifting attitudes to build will for more dignified and higher-impact forms of support?
Care at the Core: New economic and employment realities and the aging of the population are creating tensions related to caregiving structures and values.
In 2019 we asked: “How might stakeholders reexamine the role of caregiving in society, setting up systems, structures and narratives that reflect the true value of caregiving?” Even without a pandemic that shuttered schools and child care centers (leaving many of the latter never to re-open), the United States was facing a caregiving crisis that asked us to do more than try to increase access or affordability. We were already facing a confluence of events -- the aging population, a shifting economy and emerging migration patterns -- that gave us the opportunity and responsibility to reevaluate the role of caregiving in our society and create new models that reflected its importance.
Where we stand today: During the pandemic, the absolute necessity of reliable child care to the functioning of the American economy and to the mental health and well-being of both adults and children came in stark relief. So did the unsustainability of, and gaps in, our current systems of care. Child care, which has traditionally been treated as an individual choice and logistical issue for families, is now being discussed as essential infrastructure for the nation. New models that actually meet the needs of working families are being developed, and discussions about affordability and caregiver compensation are coming to the fore.
What we’re asking now: How might stakeholders ensure that the revived discourse about child care’s essential role in society treats caregiving as an inherently valuable and necessary endeavor, apart from its role in propping up the economy?
Where We Go from Here
We don’t engage in long-term thinking to gain certainty about what will happen in the future. We engage in it to spark an ongoing dialogue about where we have been, where we are today and where we hope to be in the future. Our 2019 forecast provided glimpses into opportunities and challenges that we are now navigating. These opportunities and challenges invite us to consider how we might act to bring about more of what we want to to mitigate possibilities that we don’t wish to see unfold.
As you engage with these issues and questions, remember that the future is always unfolding and that one conversation about what might come to pass will not suffice. Identify the most critical questions you have about these issues and revisit them regularly, noting what you learn as circumstances change and adjusting where you put your attention and activity based on what you learn. Thinking about the future is a team practice, and we do it so that we can more creatively and effectively navigate the challenges of the unknown and realize our highest aspirations. If you could achieve anything you wanted for young children and families, what might it be?
Katie King is the director of strategic foresight engagement at KnowledgeWorks. In her role, Katie manages externally facing strategic foresight projects and partnerships, co-designs and delivers workshops and contributes to KnowledgeWorks’ publications about the future of learning. Katie has previously served as a consulting futurist for various nonprofit organizations and taught middle school English in Texas and California. Katie holds a bachelor’s in journalism from the University of Southern California and a master’s in foresight from the University of Houston. She is a member of the Association of Professional Futurists and co-author of The Futures Thinking Playbook.
Illustration by Julie Mader-Meersman.