What we’ve learned in 2022

The end of the year is a favorite time for reflection. Here we share 6 things we’ve learned this year that matter for maximizing the potential of every child, family, community, and country in 2023 and beyond.

The mega cities of the future

In 2100–within the lifetime of today’s young children–the 10 largest cities in the world will all be located in Africa or South Asia. And, according to estimates, they will seem impossibly large by today’s standards: Lagos, Nigeria, will be home to over 88 million people. New York, London, and Tokyo won’t even crack the top 20. This massive growth will require new infrastructure investments to support human development in the earliest years of a person’s life. It will also require cities to urgently pursue adaptations to the physical impacts of climate change.

We’ve hit “peak child”

According to a recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute, “it is unlikely that there will ever be many more under-fives alive than there are today.” This phenomenon has been well underway in Europe and other Western countries for decades, but it is now increasingly becoming an Asian phenomenon too. Japan is already on a trajectory where there will be more than one retiree per worker by 2055.

The questions we asked about this in 2021 are still relevant: Will countries like the United States support families that wish to have more children? Will they support young people who feel that raising children is out of reach or undesirable because of the cost of child care and other economic burdens? Will countries across the African continent build adequate infrastructure to meet the educational and human service needs of their burgeoning younger populations? The shift to older, increasingly childless societies will require new commitments to intergenerational justice and children’s rights. Otherwise, we risk leaving the increasingly smaller and vulnerable share of our population (children) further behind.

Gen Z are now parents

As frequent readers know, the generational transformation in parenting from millennials to Gen Z in the United States and across the Global North has been an obsession of ours in recent years. We now know that 2022 or 2023 will see most first-time births in the U.S. to Gen Z mothers. This transformation has arrived for early care and education systems, corporations, pediatric primary care providers, and others that support or engage young parents. Read our analysis about what to expect as Gen Z starts to parent and adaptations decision makers can embrace to meet their needs.

Life expectancy is dropping in the U.S.

Rising life expectancy is a key indicator of human development and potential, but due to a combination of COVID-19, accidental deaths, and drug overdoses, the U.S. has experienced a “deep and persistent drop in life expectancy.” And we’ve mostly been oblivious to it. While Black Americans have seen significant gains in life expectancy (which represents undeniable progress), disparities persist. Native American life expectancy declined 6.6 years since 2019. As Kate Sheridan has written, life expectancy isn’t a useful gauge of individual health, but “it’s more like a check engine light—an indicator for the health of society as a whole.” Decreased life expectancy in the U.S–even as life expectancies in other countries are bouncing back to pre-COVID levels–should be a flashing warning light to decision makers that urgent action to improve health and well-being is imperative.

Global child mortality rates are still not good enough

Child mortality is still well above what the world agreed to in the Sustainable Development Goals and it means that 15,000 children under the age of five die every day. While we have made progress, more must be done to maximize the potential for the world’s children, protect their health, and secure their freedoms. This is attainable progress, but progress is a policy choice and we have to make it.

Fewer than half of Americans belong to a church, mosque, or synagogue

Setting actual religion aside for a moment, this represents a significant shift in belonging that has implications for our children and youth, and their families. When reporting on Raj Chetty’s most recent economic mobility research, David Leonhardt pointed out that diverse religious communities encourage the cross-class friendships that foster upward economic mobility. At precisely the moment that Americans are segregating themselves by class they are decoupling themselves from the institutions that are among the most effective in fostering meaningful cross-class relationships and intergenerational economic opportunity. Religious people–and the not-so-religious too–should concern themselves with the health of these important community institutions, whether for religious and spiritual reasons or to promote economic mobility and social cohesion.

We look forward to learning with you in 2023. Happy Holidays.

Caroline Cassidy